On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, the New England Patriots will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in a game that could define the final stretch of the AFC playoff race. The Patriots, riding an eight-game winning streak and holding the No. 2 seed in the conference, are heavy favorites — but the absence of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase turns what was expected to be a high-stakes duel into a test of depth, resilience, and coaching. The Bengals, at 4-7, are fighting just to stay relevant. Here’s the thing: this isn’t just about who wins. It’s about whether the Patriots’ machine-like consistency can survive without a true test, and whether the Bengals’ crumbling defense can hold up without their two best offensive weapons.
AI Models Agree: Patriots Are the Clear Favorite
Machine learning models are practically unanimous. Dimers.com, after simulating the game 10,000 times, gives the Patriots a 70% win probability and predicts a 27-21 final score. CBS Sports’s model, slightly more aggressive, forecasts a 30-21 Patriots victory and says they cover the 7.5-point spread in 52% of simulations. That’s not a fluke — it’s data. The Patriots’ offense, averaging 5.8 yards per play and 0.433 points per play, is among the league’s most efficient. Their completion rate? A staggering 71.74%. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense allows 6.3 yards per play and 0.506 points per play — numbers that look especially bad when you consider they’re facing a quarterback in Drake Maye who’s playing like an MVP candidate.
Who’s Missing? The Bengals’ Invisible Stars
Without Burrow, the Bengals’ offense loses its heartbeat. His toe injury — a lingering issue that’s worsened over the past three weeks — has robbed them of precision, mobility, and leadership. And without Chase? That’s not just a missing receiver. It’s the loss of a 1,400-yard threat who forces double coverage and opens up the entire field. The Bengals’ red zone efficiency (60.71%) looks good on paper, but that’s largely a product of Burrow’s ability to thread passes into tight windows. Without him, even their best asset becomes a liability. Backup quarterback Jake Browning, while competent, has never started a game under pressure like this. The Patriots’ defense, allowing only 5.3 yards per play and converting opponents’ third downs at 36.89%, will feast on predictable plays and slow-developing routes.
Betting Odds Are Confusing — And That’s the Point
Here’s the odd part: different sportsbooks are giving wildly different lines. CBS Sports lists the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites. Dimers.com, however, reports a 4.5-point spread — with equal odds on both sides. Why? Because Dimers’ model is calibrated to account for injury impact more aggressively. It sees the Bengals’ 32% win probability as undervalued by the market. But here’s the catch: even Dimers’ own data says the Patriots win 7 out of 10 times. The moneyline reflects this: Patriots -225, Bengals +185. That means you’d need to bet $225 to win $100 on New England. Sharp Football Analysis flagged “New England Patriots Over 28.5 Points (-113)” as the best bet of the week — and it’s hard to argue. The Patriots have topped 28 points in seven of their last eight games. The Bengals haven’t held a team under 24 since Week 5.
Statistical Edge: Patriots Dominate, Bengals Just Survive
TeamRankings.com’s numbers tell a brutal story. New England runs the ball on nearly half their plays (46.88%), keeping defenses honest. Cincinnati? They pass on 67.46% of snaps — a dangerous ratio when your quarterback’s hurt and your offensive line is porous. The Patriots convert third downs at 42.75%, while the Bengals manage just 41.13%. But defensively? The gap is terrifying. New England holds opponents to 36.89% third-down conversion rate. Cincinnati? 49.61%. That’s not just bad — that’s league-worst territory. Even Cincinnati’s supposed strength — red zone defense — is now a mirage. Their 68.09% red zone scoring allowed is worse than New England’s 72.00%. The difference? The Patriots have the defense to stop you. The Bengals just hope you miss.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Scoreboard
The Patriots aren’t just chasing playoff seeding. They’re building momentum for January. A win here would be their ninth straight — the longest active streak in the NFL — and would lock them into a first-round bye. For the Bengals? This is a season-saver or season-ender. Lose, and they fall to 4-8. Win, and they keep hope alive — but even then, they’d need help from teams like the Ravens and Bills. The coaching contrast is stark: Mike Vrabel in New England, a disciplined, process-driven leader who thrives under pressure, versus Cincinnati’s staff, still searching for answers after a season of injuries and missteps. The Bengals’ defense, once a strength, now looks like a sieve. And without Burrow and Chase, there’s no magic left.
What’s Next? The Real Test Comes After
If the Patriots win this game, they’ll face the Steelers and Bills in their final two contests — both winnable, but neither easy. If they lose? It’s not a disaster, but it raises questions. Are they truly elite, or just beating up on weaker teams? For the Bengals, the future hinges on Burrow’s recovery timeline. If he’s out for Week 13, their playoff hopes evaporate. Even if he returns in December, the lack of chemistry with new targets could cost them. The real story here isn’t the score — it’s the ripple effect. A Patriots win cements their status as AFC contenders. A Bengals loss? It’s a funeral for the 2025 season.
Historical Context: A Pattern of Patriots Dominance
These teams met in Week 1 of the 2024 season — a 16-10 Patriots win fueled by two Bengals turnovers. That game was ugly, low-scoring, and defined by New England’s ability to control tempo. This year’s matchup feels eerily similar: a Patriots defense that suffocates, a Bengals offense that’s broken. The only difference? This time, Cincinnati doesn’t even have their best player on the field. That’s not a matchup. It’s a reckoning.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Joe Burrow’s absence impact the Bengals’ chances?
Burrow’s injury removes the Bengals’ only consistent playmaker. Without him, their offense drops from top-10 to bottom-5 in efficiency. Backup Jake Browning has never started a game under playoff pressure, and the lack of Ja’Marr Chase eliminates their deep threat. The Bengals’ red zone success, once reliant on Burrow’s accuracy, now relies on luck — and that’s not a strategy.
Why do different sportsbooks have such different point spreads?
Some books, like CBS Sports, use traditional models that weigh recent performance heavily. Dimers.com uses AI that factors in injury impact and historical player performance under stress. The 7.5-point spread reflects market sentiment; the 4.5-point line reflects deeper statistical modeling. The truth? Both are right — the Patriots are favored, but not by as much as the public thinks.
Is Drake Maye really an MVP candidate?
Yes. With 24 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions this season, Maye is completing 71% of his passes and leading the league in fourth-quarter comebacks. He’s not just efficient — he’s clutch. His 108.7 passer rating is second only to Patrick Mahomes. If the Patriots win their next three games, he’ll be in serious MVP conversation — and this game against the Bengals is his chance to silence doubters.
What’s the most likely outcome based on the data?
The most likely outcome is a Patriots win by 6-9 points, with a final score around 27-21. Their offense will move the ball efficiently, while their defense will force at least one turnover. The Bengals will score two touchdowns — likely one on a short drive after a Patriots mistake — but won’t have enough to overcome the deficit. The over/under on 47.5-50.5 points is a coin flip, but the Patriots covering the spread is the safer bet.
Can the Bengals still make the playoffs?
It’s mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely. They’d need to win their final four games and get help from the Ravens, Bills, and Titans. Even if they beat the Patriots, their remaining schedule includes the Steelers and Browns — both playoff-caliber teams. Without Burrow, their ceiling is 7 wins. The playoffs require 9. They’re out of control now.
What should fans watch for during the game?
Watch the Patriots’ defensive line — they’ll dominate the trenches without Burrow’s mobility. Watch for Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst — he’s their most reliable target now. And watch the clock: New England will try to control time of possession, keeping the ball away from a depleted Cincinnati offense. If the Patriots lead by 14 at halftime, the game is over.
